Comments on: Predicting the Housing Market

By: Bob

Bob — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 23:35:55 +0000

No one has been even close to right about this market. 6 months ago, few considered sane would have thought that the Feds would invest a minimum of $250 billion in banks, or that only independent stock brokerages would be all that is left.

When you have investment bankers with 40 years experience stating that they have never seen anything like this in their lifetimes, any predictions about recovery might as well be published in the Weekly World News with a picture of Nostradamus.

By: Russell Shaw

Russell Shaw — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 19:38:56 +0000

>>Kris, what a perfect analogy. You are amazing!

Ditto.

By: Kris Berg

Kris Berg — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 18:43:31 +0000

Jay – No Birthday Blogging allowed.

As for the “When will we get there?” I tend to agree that 2009 is extremely optimistic. My husband, on the other hand, thinks Mr. Greenspan (and Jay Thompson) may be close to correct.

By: Steve Simon

Steve Simon — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 18:41:30 +0000

There is no recovery coming, period. Not in this life time. That is if you call a recovery a return to previous price levels…
What will happen is a bottom will be reached and then a bounce or two off the bottom and a retest or two of the bottom. Followed by very slow growth. I doubt very strongly if prices (adjusted for inflation yet to happen) will return to levels that were at the peak of the run.
More likely those levels are reached in the next generation. They were an artificial result of five or six factors being “Just Right”. If I were to wait to sell my home for the $325,000 I could have gotten in the back end of 2005, I think I would be waiting until I am about 97 (not likely to happen given my family’s longevity)…
That’s not to say you can’t make money! You can. Buy right from here, improve where the return is greatest (see my post on PP&C on my blog), and negotiate well; you will make money.
Or do the above to evena mediocre level but do it with multi-family property, with lots of renters pulling your wagon, you will make money.
Do not buy in anticipation of a recovery in the traditional sense (a return to what was); it isn’t going to happen within the next twenty years.
Now if your investment window is twenty or twenty-five years (the census will tell you where population is going) you should see the rise to at least meet the high levels we fell from.
A better approach is to buy low, PP&C, and hold for about foour or five them sell with terms to obtain price.
Just my thoughts:)

By: Benn Rosales

Benn Rosales — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 17:12:47 +0000

Now you know why Greenspan wears those B.S. goggles… just sayin.

By: Danilo Bogdanovic

Danilo Bogdanovic — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 17:10:14 +0000

Awesome analogy Kris! What’s scary is that the weather report is more accurate than some of these “expert’s” opinions.

By: Mark Eibner

Mark Eibner — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:47:39 +0000

Kris- Greenspan and his cartel of little central banker friends (private banks) have steered us into this mess. Research Bretton Woods and 1971. This is far from over and the face of the world will change. Expect 5 years minimum. 2009 is a pipe dream…just do the math. When the DOW hits 6000…we will be there.

By: Jay Thompson

Jay Thompson — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:42:39 +0000

August 24, 2009. Mark it down. That’s the day the housing recovery hits.

Hey, I have as good a shot as any at being right. And if I am right, I’ll look like a freaking genius. If I’m wrong? I’ll just join the ranks of all the other failed predictions.

About all anyone knows is what will happen today. And even that’s a crap shoot.

By: Paula Henry

Paula Henry — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:22:38 +0000

This is great, Kris – If real estate is cyclical, we can expect Greenspan to be right at least once in the next 16 years. Whether or not that “one time” will be next year; I think it’s a coin toss.

By: Benn Rosales

Benn Rosales — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 15:56:45 +0000

Joe, your link was broken, try again.