Comments on: The Real Lawrence Yun

By: Jim Duncan

Jim Duncan — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 15:54:45 +0000

Bob –

Dr. Yun said that the reason that they make forecasts is because if they don’t, they don’t look like credible economists. It’s difficult to swallow that statement in the context of his predecessor’s “forecasts,” but I think/hope that in 18 months, we’ll be able to look at NAR’s economists with a different eye – one that lends credence to his ‘vision.”

By: Maureen Francis

Maureen Francis — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:24:21 +0000

I think that survey about the percentage of shortsales is old

By: Bill Lublin

Bill Lublin — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 05:39:17 +0000

Bob – NAR needs an economist because economists really don’t forecast, they make SWAGs – Sophisticated Well Adjusted Guesses – (with the emphasis on the Sophisticated) and as the representative voices of the real estate profession, NAR wants someone who is well informed from that perspective with accurate data to make their educated projections of what’s going to happen. I would still trust NAR’s data more then data from any other sources. And as Scott points out, there are lots of people making lots of predictions or forecasts based upon their perspective, with no greater degree of accuracy, and in many cases less because they are using limited data or have a skewed viewpoint for some other reason.
Just as even a broken clock is right twice a day, even a well oiled and accurate clock can be off sometimes, but at least we can see from Matthews report that Yun is a bright , well educated man with a storng sense of integrity – just the kind of person you want to get information from.

By: Bill Lublin

Bill Lublin — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 05:30:17 +0000

Matthew – What a terrific post and thank yo ufor a well balanced and even handed explanation of what Dr. Yun’s job is. I have heard him speak a number of times, and have spoken to him on a couple of occaisions and found him to be very bright, very insightful, and very aware of the real world. I also believe that you did a wonderful job on explaining the vagaries of economic forecasting and the job of an economist liek Lawrence Yun – makes me proud to be a little brother -

By: David

David — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 17:14:10 +0000

Thank for your perspective.

By: Dr. Lawrence Yun Is A Zebra | The Real Estate Zebra

Dr. Lawrence Yun Is A Zebra | The Real Estate Zebra — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 14:02:00 +0000

[...] Bogdanovic Daniel Rothamel Scott Rogers @ VARBuzz Matthew Rathbun @ AgentGenius Ben Martin, blogger and VAR Staff/Social Media guru Bookmark [...]

By: Bob in San Diego

Bob in San Diego — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 04:10:36 +0000

“He said that his intent was to establish a well respected team that was “the” source of real estate marketing statistics in the U.S.”

I think those are admirable intentions, but someone tell me why we need anyone at NAR to make predictions.

By: Matthew Rathbun

Matthew Rathbun — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 22:20:27 +0000

Michelle – I think that you’re question about what we can do locally is a great start! We can’t all depend on others, even the National Association, to fix everything. Real Estate is local and sometimes it’s up to the agent to create their own market.

Tony – I think you’re right in that it’s important for our representatives on the national level should know how the members feel. Whether it’s him reading the blogs or someone from staff reading the productive posts it may help knowing what issues everyone else is facing.

Scott – I think that he is rebuilding the reputation, but it’s only going to be effective if the membership and other divisions of NAR buy in and support his efforts.

By: Scott Brunner, VAR

Scott Brunner, VAR — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 19:51:46 +0000

Tony — The point that Yun made at lunch was that EVERYONE’S forecast have been wrong in recent months, and some adjustment is the rule, not the exception. He noted that while Robert Schiller’s forecasts (the much touted Case-Schiller Indices) look prescient now, Schiller’s been making the same “sky is falling” forecasts since 2003 or so. He wasn’t right back then, but he’s much closer to right now. It’s like a broken clock will eventually have the correct time sooner or later.

I think the most interesting thing Dr. Yun said is that he doesn’t benchmark his forecasts or opinions on those of other economists. As he said, the data is sacred, the methodology is fairly standard (mandated by the Dept of Commerce, if I recall correctly), and it’s from that that he draws his own conclusions.

I agree with the take of the other Virginia bloggers who’ve written about the lunch: Lawrence Yun is on his way to rebuilding the credibility of NAR’s economics and research division – as well as enhancing its user-friendliness to members.

By: Tony Arko

Tony Arko — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 19:18:33 +0000

Matt, Thanks for the post. I appreciate it. The one comment I will make is that maybe he should start reading blogs and getting an idea of what is going on from the troops on the frontlines. It couldn’t hurt in his forecasting abilities given that they have been so inaccurate of late.