Developers and builders are more optimistic
The the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Multifamily Production Index (MPI) reached a seven year high, recording its highest reading since the third quarter of 2005 with an index of 51, measuring developer and builder sentiment about current conditions in the multifamily market on a scale of 100. The MPI rose 2.0 percent from the fourth quarter to the first, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of increases.
In the first quarter of 2012, the MPI component tracking builder and developer perceptions of market-rate rental properties recorded an all-time high of 69, while low-rent units dipped slightly to 53. For-sale units increased to 37, which is the highest reading for this component since the fourth quarter of 2005.
Construction continues despite difficulties
The Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI), which measures the multifamily housing industry’s perception of vacancies, dropped to a level of 31, the lowest recording since the inception of the index in 2003. With the MVI, lower numbers indicate fewer vacancies. The MVI has decreased considerably in the last three years, after peaking at 70 in the second quarter of 2009.
“Multifamily construction continues to be a bright spot in the overall housing market,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, as indicated by the MVI, demand for apartments is now quite high, and production is still very low in a historic context and in the context of what we project is necessary to meet long-term demand.”
Historically, the MPI and MVI have performed well as leading indicators of U.S. Census figures for multifamily starts and vacancy rates, providing information on likely movement in the Census figures one to three quarters in advance.